Back To Blog

Are Vermont house prices going up or down in 2020?

This is a very difficult question to answer.  Obviously if you are planning on selling your home in 2020 then you want the answer to be yes, home prices will continue rising.  On the other hand, if you are planning on buying in 2020 then you want the answer to be yes, home prices will be declining in 2020.  

Regardless of whether you are planning on buying or selling in 2020, you should be wary of anybody that tells you that they know for certain where home prices are going in 2020.  

The biggest problem with predicting future real estate values is that real estate agents rely upon historic data (i.e. past sales) to predict future values.  Therefore, the predictions about future values are only as credible as the data.  If prices begin to decline, the sales data will not immediately show it.  There will be a lag from the time sales prices begin declining until the point where the pattern in the data reveals itself and it becomes clear that there was a change.  

Like most things in our world, the real estate market is constantly evolving and changing.  We need to be humble enough to acknowledge that predictions about future home values can be wrong.  We need to admit that we make educated guesses based upon the patterns seen in the historic data and should those patterns change, our educated guesses will, for a short period, miss their mark. 

If done properly, agents will be transparent with their clients and acknowledge the limitations of using historic data.  If agents are honest with their clients then there is no reason for consumers to be concerned.  However, without the proper disclosures, an agent could try to manipulate and lure unwitting consumers with promises of ever higher sales prices and 100% certainty in what is really just their best guess.  Only charlatans make promises based upon claims of possessing the gift of clairvoyance.  Nobody can tell you with 100% certainty where prices will be in 2020. 

We certainly hope that the price increases we saw in 2019 continue into 2020 but real estate markets tend to have peaks and valleys.  We have seen ten plus years of straight growth.  It is possible that we will not see another dip in values in our lifetime.  However, it is equally possible that we will see a dip as early as 2020.  

The most important lesson to be learned from past dips is that you never want to rely solely upon the equity in your home as your sole source of income.  A home is a place where memories are created.  A home is a place to be cherished.  A home is a place to revel in the warmth of family and friends.  Combined these qualities add up to the true  "value" of your home.  

    Add Comment

    Comments are moderated. Please be patient if your comment does not appear immediately. Thank you.

    Comments

    1. No comments. Be the first to comment.